Responding to the Glenigan Construction Forecast: Change, Adaptation and Opportunity

The latest Glenigan Construction Industry Forecast presents a mixed picture for the UK construction market. The message from the webinar, “some sunshine but definitely some showers”, feels like an accurate summary. The forecast points to continuing uncertainty in 2026, with economic pressures, subdued confidence, funding delays and cost challenges still affecting project starts. However, it also identifies areas of resilience and recovery, particularly from 2027 onwards.

For a commercial contractor such as Sloane Curtis, the most important point is that the market is not simply rising or falling as one. It is changing shape. Some traditional sources of work are under pressure, while other opportunities are emerging around refurbishment, enabling works, repositioning, sustainability, public investment and the adaptation of existing buildings.

Sloane Curtis was originally founded as a retail fit-out contractor, and that background remains central to who we are. Retail has taught us how to work to tight programmes, coordinate multiple trades, protect live environments, manage landlord and occupier requirements, and deliver spaces that are ready for use. However, the retail market has changed significantly. Traditional fit-out opportunities have reduced, and this has led to two important developments within our business: a greater focus on enabling and landlord works, and a deliberate diversification into adjacent sectors.

Retail remains a challenging sector. The report highlights the pressure created by the consumer squeeze, online competition, cost inflation and vacant premises. Retail project starts fell sharply in 2025 and are forecast to remain subdued by historic standards, even with some recovery expected in 2027. On the surface, that could be seen as a negative story. However, we believe the more useful interpretation is that retail is not disappearing. It is being reshaped.

This is a view supported by the wider conversation taking place around the future of town centres and high streets. Through recent events with High Street Positives, we have heard a more constructive narrative around retail: one focused not simply on decline, but on adaptation, mixed uses, local identity, experience, community and the need to make existing places work harder. That is highly relevant to contractors. A weaker retail market may reduce demand for straightforward store rollouts, but it can increase demand for strip-out, subdivision, façade upgrades, white-boxing, services alterations, shell works and the repositioning of redundant or underused space.

Hotel and leisure show a similar pattern. The Glenigan forecast points to a difficult 2026, with pressure on discretionary spending and hospitality costs affecting investment. However, it also suggests recovery from 2027 as consumer confidence and household incomes improve. For us, this is an adjacent market rather than a completely separate one. Hotels, gyms, restaurants and leisure environments share many characteristics with retail projects: customer-facing spaces, brand standards, programme pressure, live or constrained locations and significant mechanical, electrical and finishing coordination.

Offices are perhaps the clearest positive in the Glenigan forecast. While parts of the private sector remain subdued, offices have bucked the trend, supported by demand for premium space, improved environmental performance, refurbishment, remodelling and data centres. This is particularly interesting for Sloane Curtis because we have recently completed our own high-end office fit-out. That project is more than an internal milestone. It demonstrates our understanding of modern workplace expectations, quality finishes, coordination, functionality and the need to create environments that support both staff and clients.

Industrial is another sector where the forecast points to near-term caution but medium-term opportunity. Glenigan expects a weaker 2026, followed by stronger recovery in 2027 and 2028, driven by logistics, light industrial, ecommerce, supply chain reconfiguration and modern commercial space. For Sloane Curtis, the opportunity is not necessarily in competing for large new-build logistics sheds. It is more likely to sit in refurbishment, conversion and adaptation of existing industrial and commercial buildings.

Public sector work, particularly education and health, is also important. Glenigan forecasts growth in both sectors, supported by public investment, school rebuilding, further education, essential repairs, healthcare estate upgrades, primary care and hospital programmes. This is a positive area of the forecast, but it should be approached carefully. Public sector work often brings different procurement requirements, more formal compliance expectations, social value commitments and a greater emphasis on policy evidence.

Across all of these sectors, the same underlying theme emerges. The opportunity for Sloane Curtis is not defined by a single end-user market. It is defined by the type of problem we help clients solve. Existing buildings need to be made useful again. That may mean turning a former retail unit into a viable new space, refurbishing an office, converting a building for storage, improving a hotel, adapting a leisure unit, or delivering works within an education or healthcare environment. In each case, the requirement is for careful planning, safe delivery, strong coordination, programme certainty and a clear understanding of how to work within existing buildings.

This is where our recent history becomes important. We have already moved beyond traditional retail fit-out, not by abandoning retail, but by building on the skills it gave us. Our recent and current work in offices, storage, education and hotels suggests a clear direction of travel. These sectors are different, but the delivery principles are familiar: understand the client’s commercial objective, manage the constraints of the building, coordinate the works properly and hand over a space that is ready for its next use.

The Glenigan forecast does not suggest an easy market. It does, however, suggest a market where focused and adaptable contractors can find opportunity. For Sloane Curtis, the future lies in using our retail foundations to serve a wider commercial purpose: helping clients adapt spaces, unlock value and prepare buildings for their next use.